Pro-active monitoring and social interventions at community level mitigate the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic on older adults' mortality in Italy: A retrospective cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 epidemic in Italy has severely affected people aged more than 80, especially socially isolated. Aim of this paper is to assess whether a social and health program reduced mortality associated to the epidemic. METHODS: An observational retrospective cohort analysis of deaths recorded among >80 years in three Italian cities has been carried out to compare death rate of the general population and "Long Live the Elderly!" (LLE) program. Parametric and non-parametric tests have been performed to assess differences of means between the two populations. A multivariable analysis to assess the impact of covariates on weekly mortality has been carried out by setting up a linear mixed model. RESULTS: The total number of services delivered to the LLE population (including phone calls and home visits) was 34,528, 1 every 20 day per person on average, one every 15 days during March and April. From January to April 2019, the same population received one service every 41 days on average, without differences between January-February and March-April. The January-April 2020 cumulative crude death rate was 34.8‰ (9,718 deaths out of 279,249 individuals; CI95%: 34.1-35.5) and 28.9‰ (166 deaths out of 5,727 individuals; CI95%:24.7-33.7) for the general population and the LLE sample respectively. The general population weekly death rate increased after the 11th calendar week that was not the case among the LLE program participants (p<0.001). The Standardized Mortality Ratio was 0.83; (CI95%: 0.71-0.97). Mortality adjusted for age, gender, COVID-19 weekly incidence and prevalence of people living in nursing homes was lower in the LLE program than in the general population (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: LLE program is likely to limit mortality associated with COVID-19. Further studies are needed to establish whether it is due to the impact of social care that allows a better clients' adherence to the recommendations of physical distancing or to an improved surveillance of older adults that prevents negative outcomes associated with COVID-19.

Predictors of Emergency Room Access and Not Urgent Emergency Room Access by the Frail Older Adults.

Background: Emergency rooms (ERs) overcrowded by older adults have been the focus of public health policies during the recent COVID-19 outbreak too. This phenomenon needed a change in the nursing care of older frail people. Health policies have tried to mitigate the frequent use of ER by implementing community care to meet the care demands of older adults. The present study aimed to investigate the predictors of emergency room access (ERA) and not-urgent emergency room access (NUERA) of community-dwelling frail older adults in order to provide an indication for out-of-hospital care services. Method: Secondary analysis of an observational longitudinal cohort study was carried out. The cohort consisted of 1,246 community-dwelling frail older adults (over 65 years) in the Latium region in Italy. The ER admission rate was assessed over 3 years from the administration of the functional geriatric evaluation (FGE) questionnaire. The ordinal regression model was used to identify the predictors of ERA and NUERA. Moreover, the ERA and NUERA rate per 100 observations/year was analyzed. Results: The mean age was 73.6 (SD ± 7.1) years, and 53.4% were women. NUERAs were the 39.2% of the ERAs; robust and pre-frail individuals (79.3% of the sample) generated more than two-third of ERAs (68.17%), even if frails and very frails showed the higher ER rates per observation/year. The ordinal logistic regression model highlighted a predictive role on ERAs of comorbidity (OR = 1.13, p < 0.001) and frailty level (OR = 1.29; p < 0.001). Concerning NUERAs, social network (OR 0.54, P = 0.015) and a medium score of pulmo-cardio-vascular function (OR 1.50, P = 0.006) were the predictors. Conclusion: Comorbidity, lack of social support, and functional limitations increase both ERA and NUERA rates generated by the older adult population. Overall, bio-psycho-social frailty represents an indicator of the frequency of ERAs. However, to reduce the number of ERAs, intervention should focus mainly on the robust and pre-frail needs for prevention and care.

Impact of COVID-19 on older adults and role of long-term care facilities during early stages of epidemic in Italy.

Older adults are the main victims of the novel COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak and elderly in Long Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) are severely hit in terms of mortality. This paper presents a quantitative study of the impact of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy during first stages of the epidemic, focusing on the effects on mortality increase among older adults over 80 and its correlation with LTCFs. The study of growth patterns shows a power-law scaling regime for the first stage of the pandemic with an uneven behaviour among different regions as well as for the overall mortality increase according to the different impact of COVID-19. However, COVID-19 incidence rate does not fully explain the differences of mortality impact in older adults among different regions. We define a quantitative correlation between mortality in older adults and the number of people in LTCFs confirming the tremendous impact of COVID-19 on LTCFs. In addition a correlation between LTCFs and undiagnosed cases as well as effects of health system dysfunction is also observed. Our results confirm that LTCFs did not play a protective role on older adults during the pandemic, but the higher the number of elderly people living in LTCFs the greater the increase of both general and COVID-19 related mortality. We also observed that the handling of the crises in LTCFs hampered an efficient tracing of COVID-19 spread and promoted the increase of deaths not directly attributed to SARS-CoV-2.